250300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 59.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISSIPATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 80NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 242323Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY AND REFLECTS THE DISSIPATING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 20S HAS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (60-70 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, REACHING FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. TC FAKIR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE EAST, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER MADAGASCAR AND SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, RETAINING THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK DIRECTION AND ALONG TRACK SPEED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET.
