WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250000Z --- NEAR 24.6S 59.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 59.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 25.4S 60.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 59.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISSIPATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER 80NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND A
LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 242323Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY AND REFLECTS THE
DISSIPATING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
TC 20S HAS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (60-70 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM,
REACHING FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. TC FAKIR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE EAST, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER MADAGASCAR AND SLOWS THE FORWARD
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, RETAINING THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU
12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK DIRECTION AND ALONG TRACK SPEED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET.//