WTPN33 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 019 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 105.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 105.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.1N 103.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.1N 101.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.2N 100.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 105.0E. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION. A 162234Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS POSITION AND REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS DISPLACED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON EXPECTED WEAKENING AND THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS FROM ANY LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD FLOW. TS 20W IS OVERLAND TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 DUE TO HIGH VWS AND LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN