WTIO31 PGTW 202100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 85.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 85.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.6N 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 84.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BUT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 BASED ON A 201449Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND LAND INTERACTION WITH EASTERN INDIA. TC 04B IS BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TC 04B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, MAKE LANDFALL, AND DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITHIN 12 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT BASED ON UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 9 FEET.// NNNN