WTPS31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 142.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 142.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.6S 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 142.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM WEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW OVER LAND, CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES AND LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WHICH IS SCALED LOWER FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BASED ON LAND INTERACTION, AND SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA, AUSTRALIA REPORTING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A MINIMUM MSLP OF 984 MB. TC 16P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE OVER LAND REMAINING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS ANOTHER COMPETING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BUILD. THE REMNANTS OF TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AS A POST TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS EVENTUALLY TRACKING WESTWARD AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE BUILDS. THERE EXISTS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE REMNANTS OF 16P TO AGAIN TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BEYOND TAU 48, BUT OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//