WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (YUTU) WARNING NR 047
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 116.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 116.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 20.9N 116.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 21.2N 116.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 116.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 012350Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS IS BASED ON A 012236Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWING MOSTLY 25 KNOT
WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTH WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH SURGE FLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNFAVORABLE, BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KNOTS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS PRESENT BUT THERE IS
NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 25 AND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 31W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TD
31W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020000Z IS 8 FEET.//
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