020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 116.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W (YUTU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 012350Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 012236Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWING MOSTLY 25 KNOT WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTH WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SURGE FLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNFAVORABLE, BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS PRESENT BUT THERE IS NO EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE, BETWEEN 25 AND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 31W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. TD 31W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 8 FEET.
