WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA) WARNING NR 027
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 8.7N 119.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 119.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 9.4N 118.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 9.9N 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 119.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED BROAD LLC AND
NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY. A 150531Z GPM 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION,
WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN SHEARED OVER 100NM TO THE NORTHWEST, HAS
DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC IN THE MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 20 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 150158Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING AN
ISOLATED AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC, AND
OTHERWISE MOSTLY 15 KT WINDS SURROUNDING THE DISTURBANCE. PGTW HAS
FIXED THE SYSTEM AS TOO WEAK SINCE 150000Z AND RJTD HAS STOPPED
ISSUING FIXES ON THE SYSTEM, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE 20 KNOT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE PROGRESSIVE DISORGANIZATION
OF TD 02W. SSTS IN THE SULU SEA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 27
DEGREES CELSIUS, BUT SSTS DECREASE TO BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT DIVERGENCE
ALOFT HAS ABATED SIGNIFICANTLY, STIFLING ANY REMAINING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. TD 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. TD SANBA IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD CLOSE TO
PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, AND ONWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY. DUE TO THE CHANGES IN STORM
MOTION AND THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS OVERALL A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 10 FEET.//