200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 78.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, INCREASINGLY RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE IR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A 200348Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS IN LINE WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, AND AGREES WITH A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 36 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS HIGH (25-30 KTS) AND IS CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LLCC AND THE NEAREST CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HOWEVER, IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE HIGH VWS AND COOLING (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 04S HAS SLOWED AND TURNED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION HAS DECREASED AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WITH SLIGHT NORTH AND SOUTH VARIATIONS DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE HIGH VWS AND GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, REACHING FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DESPITE THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST, LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE CURRENT STORM MOTION LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 16 FEET.
