WTIO31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 53.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 53.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 17.9N 53.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 18.5N 52.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM WEST
OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS 02A WEAKENS, BUT THE SYSTEM
IS REMAINING ORGANIZED WITH BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AT
PRESENT. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE WHICH IS STILL VISIBLE
IN SOME FRAMES, AS WELL AS THE CENTER OF ROTATION IN THE SALALAH
RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS, AS 02A
BEGINS TO WEAKEN FROM LAND INTERACTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
SALALAH REPORT 52 KT SUSTAINED WINDS 40 MILES FROM THE SYSTEM
CENTER. TC 02A HAS MADE LANDFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND
TO THE NORTHWEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE DRY, MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN, AND WILL DISSIPATE BEYOND TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
EVENTUAL WESTWARD TURN OF THE REMNANTS AFTER DISSIPATION,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//