WTIO31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 63.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 63.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 20.1N 63.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 63.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM EAST OF
MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281637Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC BECOMING ELONGATED WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS DUE TO REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
IMAGE. THE RELATIVELY HIGH WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY JET
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF TC 02A IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWEST MONSOON.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 12 FEET.
//