121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 119.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM EAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM NOW INLAND WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON BOTH SATELLITE FIXES AND PORT HEDLAND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BANDS WITH A CENTRAL VORTEX JUST EAST OF THE STATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN APRF DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM BEDOUT ISLAND REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC 05S ON A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 05S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING OF AUSTRALIA.
