WTIO31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA) WARNING NR 033
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 10.5N 67.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 67.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 10.8N 66.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 11.0N 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 789 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 181710Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH
ONLY 15 KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC, AND A SMALL AREA OF 20
KT WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND THE DECOUPLING OF
CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. THIS IS BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM
KNES, ALTHOUGH THOSE FIXES WERE TRACKING THE CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND ARE NORTH OF THE JTWC 181800Z BEST
TRACK POSITION. ADDITIONALLY, A 181500Z BUOY OBSERVATION 60NM TO
THE NNE REPORTED 14 KT WINDS AND 1008 MB ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND
ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS LED TO THE DRASTIC WEAKENING
AND DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE THE DECOUPLED
CONVECTION IS NOW SUBJECT TO NORTHWESTWARD UPPER LEVEL STEERING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
UNFAVORABLE AS THE DISSIPATED TC 07B TRACKS WESTWARD, WITH DRIER
AIR, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DECREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TO SUSTAIN ANY REMAINING CONVECTION, AND REGENERATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET.//
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