182100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 67.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (GAJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 789 NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 181710Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A COMPACT CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 15 KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC, AND A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND THE DECOUPLING OF CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. THIS IS BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM KNES, ALTHOUGH THOSE FIXES WERE TRACKING THE CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND ARE NORTH OF THE JTWC 181800Z BEST TRACK POSITION. ADDITIONALLY, A 181500Z BUOY OBSERVATION 60NM TO THE NNE REPORTED 14 KT WINDS AND 1008 MB ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, AND ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS LED TO THE DRASTIC WEAKENING AND DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE THE DECOUPLED CONVECTION IS NOW SUBJECT TO NORTHWESTWARD UPPER LEVEL STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE UNFAVORABLE AS THE DISSIPATED TC 07B TRACKS WESTWARD, WITH DRIER AIR, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO SUSTAIN ANY REMAINING CONVECTION, AND REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET.
