WTXS31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 28.7S 53.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 53.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 31.4S 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 54.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM SOUTH OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, RAGGED, AND ELONGATED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION AND UNRAVELING CONDITION OF THE LLC IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE 201146Z GPM 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. TC ELIAKIM HAS BEGUN RAPID ETT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG GALE- FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//