201500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 54.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM SOUTH OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, RAGGED, AND ELONGATED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION AND UNRAVELING CONDITION OF THE LLC IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE 201146Z GPM 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. TC ELIAKIM HAS BEGUN RAPID ETT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG GALE- FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
