090900Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 47.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO CYCLONIC MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND ONE ANOTHER, AND MINIMAL REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090322Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWING AN AMBIGUOUS LLCC WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION PRIMARILY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ALL OTHER DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE BOTH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KTS), BUT BELOW A 090413Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KTS. A 090554Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE 25 KT WIND FIELD, WITH SEVERAL 30 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 160 NM FROM THE CENTER POSITION, AT THE INBOARD EDGE OF THE PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLY COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. TC 03S HAS TRACKED TO THE SOUTH, AND COMPLETED A SMALL LOOP OVER ITS TRACK IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. BEYOND TAU 12, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THE REMNANTS OF TC 03S WILL INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
